* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942012 08/10/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 60 67 70 69 73 68 65 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 60 67 70 69 73 68 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 35 37 40 44 47 51 55 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 24 20 19 20 21 21 21 21 18 21 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 6 8 8 6 4 1 3 -3 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 127 126 106 96 89 83 76 73 85 85 75 87 105 SST (C) 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.1 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 164 163 162 162 162 160 158 153 147 141 140 143 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 8 7 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 76 75 79 79 80 80 74 75 72 69 67 61 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 10 11 13 15 16 17 16 19 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 100 103 94 84 83 77 74 82 106 115 126 120 107 200 MB DIV 72 85 84 54 45 65 23 53 49 31 48 12 32 700-850 TADV 9 9 2 2 1 6 11 2 -3 -5 -10 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 111 126 170 200 240 305 444 591 617 687 758 767 758 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.0 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.3 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.3 104.0 104.7 105.4 107.0 108.8 110.5 112.1 113.4 114.3 114.3 114.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 7 5 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 65 58 55 53 52 46 28 29 24 20 16 15 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. 0. 1. 7. 16. 24. 31. 35. 37. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 15. 14. 18. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 35. 42. 45. 44. 48. 43. 40. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942012 INVEST 08/10/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)