* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942012 06/13/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 44 51 58 61 65 66 66 67 68 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 44 51 58 61 57 40 32 33 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 41 47 52 57 64 40 31 34 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 5 7 10 9 13 13 6 4 9 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 -3 0 0 1 -4 -2 -3 -4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 21 89 128 145 157 126 99 108 113 161 99 99 85 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 164 165 166 165 163 163 162 158 160 162 162 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.1 -53.3 -52.3 -53.2 -52.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 8 6 7 6 7 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 79 77 81 82 81 84 84 83 82 84 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 12 12 12 11 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 44 43 37 27 29 41 37 39 42 42 32 36 200 MB DIV 102 97 110 77 77 133 113 96 97 92 57 82 107 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 4 0 -3 -2 0 0 2 8 14 LAND (KM) 533 510 490 454 423 334 272 113 -5 -83 -74 34 191 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 9.1 9.5 10.0 10.5 12.0 13.5 14.9 15.9 16.5 16.4 15.4 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 90.6 91.2 91.7 92.3 92.8 94.0 94.8 95.4 95.8 96.2 96.3 96.3 95.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 6 4 2 3 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 17 20 22 21 29 47 35 4 5 52 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 29. 33. 36. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 28. 31. 35. 36. 36. 37. 38. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942012 INVEST 06/13/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942012 INVEST 06/13/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##