* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942012 06/13/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 40 49 58 62 69 72 73 71 73 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 40 49 58 62 69 48 35 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 48 55 42 33 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 10 9 6 3 5 8 5 1 11 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 2 2 1 4 4 -1 -6 0 1 3 2 SHEAR DIR 22 32 73 102 117 131 124 129 98 24 17 49 44 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 163 164 165 165 165 164 163 159 158 157 156 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 78 77 79 79 79 76 82 81 82 82 83 80 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 12 13 12 12 11 8 9 9 10 9 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 42 42 40 38 7 22 17 31 36 51 61 72 200 MB DIV 127 107 105 109 80 93 141 121 93 88 82 96 83 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 3 2 0 -1 1 0 -1 0 8 LAND (KM) 517 549 550 509 465 396 279 217 33 -58 -72 -116 -114 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 7 2 1 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 14 16 18 23 26 41 54 5 5 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 15. 23. 31. 36. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -1. 0. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 24. 33. 37. 44. 47. 48. 46. 48. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942012 INVEST 06/13/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942012 INVEST 06/13/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##