* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942012 06/13/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 46 58 67 73 72 70 64 64 66 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 46 58 67 73 60 38 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 39 46 54 52 35 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 10 5 3 8 10 8 5 9 12 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 3 3 0 3 2 -3 -2 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 61 31 39 72 96 119 147 153 124 261 251 237 221 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 163 164 166 165 165 163 156 151 150 149 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.3 -52.8 -53.5 -52.3 -52.8 -51.8 -52.7 -52.0 -52.6 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 8 6 8 7 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 76 78 78 74 78 77 79 81 81 78 75 72 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 12 14 14 15 15 13 8 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 42 46 47 39 39 44 47 67 87 96 107 200 MB DIV 144 123 108 119 117 106 111 113 116 85 104 67 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 -4 -5 1 1 0 6 LAND (KM) 474 519 561 520 480 357 246 161 -43 -122 -97 -148 -251 LAT (DEG N) 7.7 8.1 8.4 9.0 9.6 11.1 12.9 14.6 16.3 17.9 19.1 19.8 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 89.4 90.1 90.8 91.3 91.7 92.7 93.8 94.8 95.7 96.4 97.1 98.1 99.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 15 15 16 22 29 47 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 15. 23. 31. 36. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 5. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 33. 42. 48. 47. 45. 39. 39. 41. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942012 INVEST 06/13/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 82% is 7.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 48% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 29% is 7.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942012 INVEST 06/13/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##