* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942012 06/12/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 48 59 69 69 68 65 64 60 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 48 59 69 69 50 35 34 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 42 50 58 45 33 35 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 10 7 0 8 12 9 14 5 7 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 1 2 4 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 -5 0 4 SHEAR DIR 89 73 44 40 78 134 181 178 189 229 238 288 323 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.1 29.8 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 161 163 166 166 167 163 155 151 149 150 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 77 76 76 78 81 82 79 74 72 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 12 13 17 17 19 13 11 10 10 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 49 40 41 62 63 67 52 38 44 66 76 75 76 200 MB DIV 152 147 140 134 165 130 142 118 122 94 57 50 56 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -3 0 1 1 3 2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 364 387 402 399 417 355 172 35 -70 -38 23 -4 -88 LAT (DEG N) 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.9 8.5 10.3 12.5 14.7 16.6 18.1 19.0 19.3 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 86.5 87.3 88.1 88.7 89.3 90.5 91.7 92.9 94.0 94.9 95.5 96.2 97.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 8 8 10 12 12 12 10 7 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 23 19 15 12 29 64 55 0 20 10 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 385 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 31. 36. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 13. 7. 4. 3. 3. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 23. 34. 44. 44. 43. 40. 39. 35. 36. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942012 INVEST 06/12/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 147.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942012 INVEST 06/12/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##