* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 09/01/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 32 37 40 42 41 38 36 34 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 32 37 40 42 41 38 36 34 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 27 29 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 25 26 28 25 16 18 19 24 28 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 5 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 40 45 48 49 52 69 65 74 89 85 84 91 82 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 160 160 159 159 160 160 159 157 154 150 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 80 82 82 84 84 81 81 81 82 79 75 72 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -21 -15 -3 -13 2 14 20 29 24 27 34 41 200 MB DIV 106 77 79 83 72 60 33 52 62 56 53 13 2 700-850 TADV -10 -7 -3 -4 -6 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 3 LAND (KM) 453 433 404 386 373 364 382 439 501 505 467 452 462 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.7 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.7 104.4 105.0 105.6 106.7 107.6 108.6 109.6 110.7 111.7 112.7 113.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 63 71 71 70 64 31 21 16 19 18 11 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 24. 32. 37. 40. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 20. 22. 21. 18. 16. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 09/01/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 09/01/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##