* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932013 10/06/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 49 53 51 46 40 34 27 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 49 53 51 46 40 34 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 42 42 39 35 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 8 7 9 3 5 15 21 24 32 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 78 69 78 91 87 107 274 247 261 242 248 246 263 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.2 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.4 24.5 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 150 150 146 138 131 126 121 115 106 95 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 60 59 58 56 59 56 53 50 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 22 26 33 38 35 28 4 9 6 19 24 18 19 200 MB DIV 53 60 60 53 48 45 40 47 47 40 24 -5 8 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 2 7 LAND (KM) 1295 1322 1354 1389 1430 1469 1513 1541 1545 1475 1387 1275 1114 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.8 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.1 117.9 118.8 119.7 121.5 123.0 124.1 124.7 124.6 124.3 124.0 123.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 9 7 6 4 4 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 15 13 13 12 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 24. 28. 26. 21. 15. 9. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932013 INVEST 10/06/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932013 INVEST 10/06/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##