* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932013 10/05/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 33 39 45 51 53 54 51 49 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 33 39 45 51 53 54 51 49 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 41 46 50 51 50 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 8 8 14 12 6 8 6 6 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 -2 -7 -4 -5 -3 -6 -5 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 74 79 95 99 58 47 54 52 360 304 295 215 221 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 150 150 149 147 143 140 136 135 135 136 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 57 61 62 62 64 65 62 63 62 63 60 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 3 8 14 20 29 43 30 27 11 16 18 22 15 200 MB DIV 40 25 23 29 38 65 60 60 39 69 53 55 38 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 1 0 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1195 1237 1284 1351 1424 1559 1695 1797 1876 1933 1955 1932 1871 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.4 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.4 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.7 115.5 116.5 117.4 119.4 121.3 123.0 124.4 125.5 126.1 126.2 126.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 7 7 4 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 20 20 18 15 14 9 5 6 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 11. 8. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 21. 26. 28. 29. 26. 24. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932013 INVEST 10/05/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932013 INVEST 10/05/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##