* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932013 10/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 55 61 64 64 63 62 60 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 55 61 64 64 63 62 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 40 46 54 60 64 66 66 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 11 8 9 9 9 7 3 2 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 104 80 88 99 99 49 46 45 12 352 276 173 209 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 151 151 150 149 146 142 139 137 136 134 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -53.2 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 60 58 62 64 62 63 61 61 60 61 64 62 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 7 6 10 18 21 36 32 29 12 8 10 15 8 200 MB DIV 28 34 26 32 36 61 58 71 58 67 67 64 63 700-850 TADV -1 -3 0 0 1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1143 1190 1212 1259 1309 1439 1566 1688 1769 1809 1815 1769 1685 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.5 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.9 114.6 115.4 116.2 118.1 120.1 122.0 123.6 124.6 125.1 125.2 124.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 8 6 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 19 21 21 16 15 15 8 6 4 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 30. 36. 39. 39. 38. 37. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932013 INVEST 10/05/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932013 INVEST 10/05/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##