* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932013 10/05/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 43 51 56 58 55 54 53 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 43 51 56 58 55 54 53 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 36 40 46 51 54 54 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 9 11 12 2 5 2 5 5 12 19 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 2 0 0 0 -3 -1 -5 -5 -3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 150 143 109 115 145 133 124 145 181 269 232 238 227 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 152 153 152 150 147 141 135 131 128 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 62 61 58 56 53 53 53 52 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 8 8 11 17 25 35 44 35 27 12 24 35 55 200 MB DIV 39 28 35 33 40 36 59 44 46 60 48 49 56 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 6 2 2 1 2 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1086 1130 1147 1156 1170 1249 1338 1438 1530 1599 1639 1630 1531 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.3 114.0 114.7 115.4 117.1 118.9 120.9 122.7 124.1 125.1 125.5 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 6 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 23 25 28 26 16 15 8 1 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 31. 33. 30. 29. 28. 24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932013 INVEST 10/05/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932013 INVEST 10/05/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##