* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932013 10/04/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 30 37 44 48 50 53 55 58 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 30 37 44 48 50 53 55 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 31 35 38 42 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 11 11 9 14 13 21 18 19 14 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 1 5 1 0 -7 -6 -7 -6 -8 -6 SHEAR DIR 123 113 114 130 122 91 82 63 56 62 51 51 55 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 149 148 148 148 145 142 140 139 139 138 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 61 62 61 62 66 65 62 61 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 19 11 5 3 4 7 17 22 20 11 4 -6 -10 200 MB DIV 30 21 39 52 34 47 27 2 15 37 13 4 6 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 997 1075 1156 1239 1309 1417 1580 1767 1955 2098 2229 2346 2455 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.0 11.7 11.1 10.5 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.2 10.1 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 112.0 112.9 113.8 114.7 116.4 118.3 120.4 122.6 124.6 126.5 128.3 129.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 15 13 14 20 15 7 6 7 9 7 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 17. 24. 28. 30. 33. 35. 38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932013 INVEST 10/04/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932013 INVEST 10/04/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##