* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932013 10/04/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 28 34 41 47 49 50 50 54 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 28 34 41 47 49 50 50 54 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 31 36 40 44 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 11 12 7 6 6 10 11 7 11 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 -5 -4 -6 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 132 129 116 127 144 109 107 26 27 25 19 6 49 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 151 151 152 151 151 149 144 140 136 136 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 62 61 59 58 60 61 62 62 61 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 20 15 10 7 6 10 15 29 32 30 29 19 19 200 MB DIV 48 26 2 10 28 32 55 34 30 20 30 50 52 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 0 -2 -4 -5 -3 -6 -1 LAND (KM) 913 970 1032 1090 1151 1226 1321 1471 1634 1791 1912 2017 2089 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.9 111.7 112.5 113.3 114.9 116.6 118.6 120.7 122.9 124.9 126.5 127.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 17 18 17 19 23 15 11 7 6 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 29. 30. 30. 34. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932013 INVEST 10/04/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932013 INVEST 10/04/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##