* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932013 10/03/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 34 40 45 50 54 58 61 64 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 34 40 45 50 54 58 61 64 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 31 34 37 41 47 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 13 13 13 14 8 7 4 4 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 -2 -4 -5 -1 -1 -1 -5 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 126 122 106 96 99 95 128 133 123 105 101 47 128 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 151 151 153 153 152 151 149 145 139 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 62 64 63 64 65 64 62 59 59 57 56 53 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 9 8 9 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 15 21 18 18 16 12 5 10 18 30 29 21 12 200 MB DIV 43 38 49 33 21 30 48 27 27 4 19 11 8 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 758 802 848 894 942 1055 1153 1205 1304 1432 1583 1708 1854 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.2 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.9 109.4 110.1 110.7 112.2 113.6 115.1 116.8 118.8 120.9 123.1 125.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 18 17 16 16 14 18 23 15 17 10 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 20. 25. 30. 34. 38. 41. 44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932013 INVEST 10/03/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932013 INVEST 10/03/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##