* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932013 10/02/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 32 38 43 48 52 58 63 66 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 32 38 43 48 52 58 63 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 12 14 12 12 11 9 8 5 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -6 -6 -5 -3 -4 -1 0 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 106 100 113 108 98 96 98 125 111 126 103 101 113 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 154 154 153 154 154 153 151 151 148 142 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 62 62 63 62 62 63 61 59 58 56 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 9 11 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 11 17 21 26 24 16 12 6 10 22 31 30 22 200 MB DIV 31 44 44 21 36 33 33 52 34 66 22 36 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 1 3 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 661 691 714 757 803 908 1026 1105 1191 1305 1454 1576 1700 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.8 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.8 108.2 108.8 109.4 110.8 112.4 114.0 115.8 117.7 119.7 121.8 123.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 23 23 21 21 21 29 23 19 18 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 38. 43. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932013 INVEST 10/02/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932013 INVEST 10/02/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##