* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932013 10/02/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 37 43 50 54 57 60 64 68 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 37 43 50 54 57 60 64 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 33 36 40 43 47 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 11 12 12 10 11 8 12 9 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -6 -6 -7 -5 -6 -4 -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 121 113 116 134 127 133 126 127 132 130 145 130 87 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 156 156 155 155 154 152 151 149 145 141 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 59 61 61 62 61 61 60 58 57 56 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 7 8 8 9 8 9 10 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 17 23 26 25 25 22 18 17 16 23 30 31 27 200 MB DIV 9 24 41 49 23 28 28 40 53 53 46 25 38 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 542 568 587 623 663 799 941 1002 1111 1262 1451 1607 1769 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.6 14.6 14.8 14.8 14.6 14.2 14.0 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.3 107.8 108.4 109.0 110.6 112.3 114.2 116.2 118.2 120.4 122.5 124.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 25 31 38 31 25 23 42 22 20 15 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 17. 23. 30. 34. 37. 40. 44. 48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932013 INVEST 10/02/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932013 INVEST 10/02/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##