* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932013 06/12/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 9 10 9 11 6 6 12 21 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -5 -1 0 1 2 0 2 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 177 196 197 198 213 215 233 225 213 186 198 204 206 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 26.5 25.7 25.0 24.4 23.8 23.1 22.4 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 142 139 128 119 111 105 98 92 85 81 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 62 61 58 57 56 52 47 43 43 39 35 31 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -9 -13 -15 -18 -20 -34 -32 -44 -56 -58 -64 -62 200 MB DIV -45 -28 -18 -15 -16 -3 -9 -12 -20 -24 -10 6 7 700-850 TADV 2 3 1 0 1 0 0 2 2 6 8 11 7 LAND (KM) 1040 1064 1083 1061 1046 1044 1066 1074 1084 1098 1140 1199 1251 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.7 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.5 113.4 114.2 114.9 116.4 117.6 118.7 119.6 120.5 121.5 122.8 124.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 26 24 24 18 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 20. 22. 22. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -20. -25. -28. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932013 INVEST 06/12/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)