* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932013 06/12/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 30 33 35 34 32 30 27 24 22 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 30 33 35 34 32 30 27 24 22 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 26 26 25 23 22 20 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 5 4 6 10 10 7 1 3 6 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 2 -1 -1 0 -1 2 0 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 115 99 109 164 190 197 206 235 250 186 177 210 235 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.2 25.8 25.1 24.7 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 150 147 144 143 136 131 124 120 113 110 110 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 68 63 62 57 54 52 50 45 43 39 37 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -6 -9 -11 -21 -25 -27 -33 -31 -42 -51 -58 -62 200 MB DIV 12 -9 -21 -21 -19 -14 12 21 6 -9 -19 -8 -2 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 1 0 2 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 LAND (KM) 1034 1059 1089 1110 1142 1140 1144 1193 1256 1310 1383 1500 1651 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.6 12.2 12.7 13.7 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.2 111.2 112.2 113.1 114.8 116.3 117.7 119.0 120.3 121.8 123.6 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 66 75 51 29 25 23 12 11 12 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 14. 12. 10. 7. 4. 2. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932013 INVEST 06/12/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)