* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932013 06/11/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 37 41 42 42 40 38 36 34 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 37 41 42 42 40 38 36 34 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 27 29 30 30 29 28 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 13 9 7 10 12 6 4 9 10 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 -1 -5 -2 -2 1 -1 1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 57 85 102 123 130 141 186 162 152 130 138 159 214 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.9 27.3 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.5 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 155 153 149 144 143 136 130 125 121 118 116 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 75 70 67 66 64 55 53 49 48 41 38 38 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 -6 -6 -5 -18 -16 -23 -32 -34 -46 -47 -49 200 MB DIV 62 26 0 -22 -16 -16 0 26 -1 10 -19 -4 -5 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 5 4 LAND (KM) 1034 1052 1078 1092 1116 1160 1155 1157 1208 1272 1334 1438 1584 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.6 12.8 13.7 14.5 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.7 109.6 110.6 111.6 113.4 115.1 116.5 117.9 119.1 120.4 122.0 124.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 11 10 8 8 7 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 47 66 69 40 25 20 11 13 13 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 17. 21. 22. 22. 20. 18. 16. 14. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932013 INVEST 06/11/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)