* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932013 06/11/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 29 33 39 44 46 45 44 42 39 36 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 29 33 39 44 46 45 44 42 39 36 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 28 31 32 32 31 29 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 13 13 9 6 10 9 6 6 8 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 63 69 74 94 114 162 187 207 199 167 172 167 183 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.7 26.0 25.5 24.8 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 156 155 152 146 143 137 129 122 116 109 103 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 79 74 70 67 67 60 55 53 47 46 41 36 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 0 -6 -6 -13 -18 -19 -33 -31 -40 -49 -49 200 MB DIV 79 61 31 2 -22 -20 -8 11 17 2 -3 -10 -13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0 1 3 5 LAND (KM) 974 999 1029 1057 1078 1132 1147 1126 1148 1190 1205 1214 1251 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.3 12.4 13.5 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.3 17.0 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.5 108.5 109.6 110.6 112.7 114.5 116.0 117.3 118.5 119.5 120.5 121.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 38 49 70 69 26 24 13 4 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 28. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 13. 19. 24. 26. 25. 24. 22. 19. 16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932013 INVEST 06/11/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)