* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 09/21/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 46 61 74 84 90 91 90 90 88 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 46 61 74 84 90 91 90 90 88 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 54 64 73 77 75 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 5 6 5 3 1 5 2 3 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -3 -1 -6 -2 -1 -6 -1 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 318 308 147 126 132 161 104 334 71 110 171 286 237 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.0 26.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 153 154 152 152 150 145 138 132 123 115 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 71 70 70 70 66 63 62 62 59 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 14 16 18 20 21 21 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 23 30 46 51 49 45 44 40 37 40 29 28 40 200 MB DIV 70 68 89 110 110 69 104 33 77 41 35 60 60 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -1 -4 -2 -3 0 -1 5 1 3 7 LAND (KM) 511 528 552 580 610 671 747 827 796 761 708 615 463 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.4 17.3 18.2 19.4 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.3 106.1 106.8 107.5 109.0 110.4 112.0 113.2 114.2 114.6 114.6 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 52 50 54 60 62 55 54 52 38 26 13 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 21. 36. 49. 59. 65. 66. 65. 66. 63. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 09/21/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 77% is 6.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 58% is 7.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 34% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 34% is 11.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)