* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 09/20/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 25 31 35 39 44 46 53 60 64 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 25 31 35 39 44 46 53 60 64 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 23 23 23 24 25 28 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 6 7 11 8 6 7 1 5 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -2 0 -5 0 -1 0 -3 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 52 83 271 269 245 247 236 257 249 266 91 76 72 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 159 160 161 160 158 157 155 154 152 148 148 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.0 -53.6 -52.9 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 7 7 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 74 74 76 73 72 72 74 73 73 71 67 67 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 6 6 7 9 10 11 14 15 17 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -16 -12 -8 -5 3 19 24 39 34 35 26 35 200 MB DIV 1 5 5 33 66 83 122 76 80 80 51 70 115 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -5 -4 -5 -4 -2 -3 0 LAND (KM) 423 434 446 462 484 514 543 567 633 731 861 953 984 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.8 14.8 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 97.8 98.4 99.0 99.8 100.5 102.1 103.6 105.5 107.4 109.5 111.5 113.0 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 25 28 33 44 51 59 50 54 56 50 55 57 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 16. 25. 32. 37. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -15. -12. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 14. 15. 18. 20. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 15. 19. 24. 26. 33. 40. 44. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 09/20/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)