* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 08/08/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 43 45 47 50 50 50 51 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 43 45 47 50 50 50 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 39 40 40 41 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 14 19 16 26 30 31 30 35 32 27 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -1 2 1 3 6 5 1 7 3 1 SHEAR DIR 55 63 66 76 93 88 90 83 68 68 75 65 71 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 154 154 153 152 150 151 153 155 156 158 159 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -51.7 -52.7 -51.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 58 61 58 59 64 73 78 82 81 83 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -45 -44 -37 -29 -11 1 15 17 35 41 63 67 200 MB DIV 48 54 52 52 40 69 72 97 130 109 57 50 42 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 3 1 1 0 1 0 -5 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 738 753 770 785 795 824 868 889 816 700 574 463 392 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.0 10.7 11.1 12.0 13.1 14.2 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.5 104.2 104.8 105.4 106.1 106.4 106.2 105.4 104.8 104.5 104.6 105.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 2 1 2 5 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 43 47 48 47 47 47 44 41 45 54 58 63 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 25. 25. 25. 26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 08/08/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)