* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 08/08/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 41 44 45 47 48 51 46 43 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 41 44 45 47 48 51 46 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 34 38 40 41 41 41 41 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 13 14 21 24 37 33 38 33 26 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 1 1 6 3 6 3 2 5 3 SHEAR DIR 45 57 75 88 75 85 91 82 63 64 68 69 52 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 154 153 151 150 151 153 156 159 161 163 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 57 58 58 58 61 68 74 82 83 86 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 5 6 7 4 1 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -49 -49 -46 -41 -27 -12 5 15 24 31 19 31 200 MB DIV 62 44 70 66 55 74 54 89 115 132 101 60 71 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 741 759 778 797 813 842 875 918 912 788 588 431 305 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.0 10.8 10.3 10.1 10.7 12.1 13.3 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 102.2 103.0 103.7 104.4 105.0 105.8 106.1 105.9 105.1 103.7 102.4 101.6 101.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 3 1 3 5 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 42 46 46 45 44 42 37 38 45 46 53 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 5. 1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 19. 20. 22. 23. 26. 21. 18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 08/08/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)