* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 06/11/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 32 32 32 33 35 38 40 43 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 32 32 32 33 35 38 40 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 25 26 28 30 32 36 40 43 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 29 22 22 21 32 30 27 24 18 14 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -3 -4 -2 -2 -5 -5 -3 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 81 93 98 89 96 97 92 81 88 85 96 104 118 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 147 147 146 147 145 142 140 137 131 131 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -53.1 -53.7 -52.9 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 71 71 68 69 65 64 63 59 57 52 50 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 48 48 49 46 47 51 52 50 54 55 85 85 200 MB DIV 72 73 98 114 88 69 28 -3 4 -10 -29 -12 -14 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 -3 2 1 1 2 2 0 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 1100 1136 1180 1237 1299 1382 1528 1712 1917 2105 2288 2495 2643 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.8 11.9 11.9 11.4 10.9 10.3 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.5 112.5 113.4 114.3 116.1 117.9 120.1 122.3 124.7 127.2 129.8 132.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 40 49 65 74 68 56 53 41 40 11 8 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. 13. 15. 18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 06/11/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932012 INVEST 06/11/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##