* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 06/11/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 45 50 53 57 62 67 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 45 50 53 57 62 67 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 43 49 56 65 73 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 20 16 17 29 31 25 22 20 19 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 -1 -9 -7 -2 0 -3 -2 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 82 79 89 87 88 84 86 71 66 75 76 79 96 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 150 149 149 150 149 147 148 148 147 145 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 71 72 72 71 69 63 63 59 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 7 8 8 10 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 35 40 40 42 39 40 45 53 53 62 75 87 91 200 MB DIV 50 48 50 80 77 65 73 52 28 36 53 41 48 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1135 1161 1189 1188 1189 1266 1397 1472 1462 1497 1583 1629 1669 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 41 45 49 52 56 72 66 56 54 51 43 42 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 20. 25. 28. 32. 37. 42. 43. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 06/11/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932012 INVEST 06/11/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##