* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 06/10/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 46 47 48 51 54 56 58 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 46 47 48 51 54 56 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 46 52 59 66 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 20 19 16 20 22 27 25 23 19 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 1 -3 -7 -3 -5 -1 -4 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 97 94 93 94 95 89 82 91 81 82 80 103 97 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 151 150 148 146 146 147 148 147 145 143 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 71 70 68 66 66 67 62 61 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 26 29 28 30 36 33 41 47 53 48 59 75 200 MB DIV 57 44 29 39 62 58 47 50 39 41 15 38 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 0 1 -1 -3 -1 1 0 0 4 0 LAND (KM) 1092 1124 1149 1169 1194 1272 1344 1389 1452 1523 1622 1706 1769 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 4 6 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 40 41 45 50 59 74 63 58 54 50 44 40 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 21. 22. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 06/10/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932012 INVEST 06/10/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##