* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 06/10/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 54 58 58 60 61 63 65 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 54 58 58 60 61 63 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 47 55 61 65 68 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 13 15 13 13 15 23 21 19 18 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 0 1 0 -3 -3 2 0 -6 -8 -4 SHEAR DIR 102 102 103 90 96 97 70 84 86 84 98 93 93 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 155 153 152 151 150 149 146 144 141 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 68 72 67 67 64 63 61 61 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 19 23 23 23 34 37 36 28 30 40 43 43 200 MB DIV 61 50 21 22 27 41 30 41 8 0 -11 -18 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -3 -3 0 0 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1066 1093 1126 1167 1218 1351 1467 1619 1803 2011 2229 2387 2520 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.3 11.3 11.0 10.4 9.7 8.7 8.1 7.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.2 110.1 111.2 112.2 114.4 116.6 118.8 120.8 122.9 124.8 126.4 127.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 42 48 61 69 54 46 41 33 11 10 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 29. 33. 33. 35. 36. 38. 40. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 06/10/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932012 INVEST 06/10/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##