* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 06/09/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 43 52 58 63 65 67 67 68 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 43 52 58 63 65 67 67 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 32 36 41 46 51 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 13 14 14 16 22 17 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 0 0 -3 -1 0 0 -3 -1 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 109 103 96 93 87 112 102 90 79 63 77 73 71 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 156 155 152 152 151 147 141 138 137 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -51.6 -52.4 -52.7 -51.8 -53.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 70 67 67 65 63 64 60 60 60 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 10 12 12 13 13 14 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 17 19 16 29 32 40 37 26 25 24 32 200 MB DIV 121 138 158 138 98 56 67 71 46 14 46 24 11 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -2 -5 -7 -9 -3 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1106 1128 1153 1187 1225 1270 1366 1457 1540 1632 1745 1853 1963 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 10.3 10.8 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.3 109.0 109.8 110.5 112.2 114.1 116.2 118.1 119.7 121.2 122.6 123.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 50 48 44 43 44 49 47 45 54 45 41 38 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 32. 38. 43. 45. 47. 47. 48. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 06/09/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932012 INVEST 06/09/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##