* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 09/28/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 19 23 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 19 23 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 17 16 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 11 9 12 16 18 19 20 21 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 0 3 5 8 2 5 4 0 SHEAR DIR 19 25 28 47 42 31 57 58 69 81 106 125 152 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.3 27.0 26.7 25.5 24.2 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 151 147 143 137 134 131 118 104 99 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 7 8 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 67 63 61 56 54 49 44 43 38 38 36 33 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 5 6 5 6 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 17 15 13 20 15 23 10 -3 9 7 -7 -9 200 MB DIV 10 23 19 15 19 21 4 -6 14 0 5 13 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 -2 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 206 223 242 274 307 390 422 558 733 854 986 1098 1183 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.3 19.0 19.0 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 106.8 107.2 107.8 108.3 109.7 111.3 113.4 115.7 118.1 120.3 122.3 124.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 7 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 12 9 6 2 1 17 12 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 22. 27. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 3. 5. 4. 1. -4. -9. -11. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 09/28/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 09/28/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##