* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 09/27/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 42 43 40 34 28 23 21 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 42 43 40 34 28 23 21 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 29 29 28 26 23 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 11 11 10 14 13 14 12 10 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 0 3 7 5 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 25 26 28 24 24 28 32 54 53 73 94 143 189 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.6 26.7 26.2 25.2 23.8 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 154 154 151 146 140 131 126 115 99 89 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 69 66 64 62 60 55 50 45 41 38 35 32 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 8 7 4 3 1 850 MB ENV VOR 20 24 24 15 14 21 8 15 1 -2 -5 -8 -7 200 MB DIV -7 6 3 10 8 36 8 4 0 6 -8 10 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 4 3 5 LAND (KM) 186 180 184 196 208 299 333 376 523 640 738 785 781 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.5 19.9 19.9 19.9 20.3 21.1 22.2 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.0 106.3 106.7 107.1 108.4 109.9 111.7 113.9 116.2 118.3 119.8 120.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 17 15 13 7 1 1 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 28. 29. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 18. 15. 9. 3. -2. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 09/27/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 09/27/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##