* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 09/26/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 38 43 46 47 45 44 44 43 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 27 27 27 27 32 33 31 30 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 24 24 26 26 31 32 33 33 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 15 16 17 16 13 14 10 6 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 -4 -2 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 360 2 351 349 348 350 357 19 26 61 33 273 284 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 27.9 26.4 24.8 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 156 156 155 155 156 155 152 143 127 110 95 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 9 8 10 10 9 8 7 5 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 77 78 77 76 74 71 67 65 60 56 48 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 59 63 52 39 57 34 39 18 26 10 7 -2 200 MB DIV 51 46 57 37 13 12 7 17 7 0 0 -9 3 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 2 3 3 2 0 -1 2 2 1 6 LAND (KM) 69 60 44 -4 -20 -39 -10 150 204 136 253 281 314 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.4 20.3 21.0 21.5 21.8 22.2 22.8 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 101.2 101.8 102.3 102.8 103.3 104.3 105.5 107.0 108.7 110.6 112.5 114.0 115.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 7 46 43 53 16 16 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 21. 22. 20. 19. 19. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 09/26/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 09/26/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##