* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 09/26/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 43 46 47 46 45 45 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 28 27 27 27 31 29 28 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 25 26 26 27 30 30 31 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 14 16 18 18 18 18 20 12 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -5 -2 -1 -4 -1 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 14 2 4 354 351 359 4 21 34 62 58 57 34 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 27.8 26.0 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 156 156 155 154 154 155 152 142 123 107 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 9 9 12 9 11 7 8 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 78 76 77 77 75 72 71 67 66 60 58 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 44 56 61 54 49 51 30 27 18 9 2 -6 200 MB DIV 36 51 54 49 39 19 8 41 9 -8 -15 -5 -9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 0 -3 0 3 1 2 LAND (KM) 76 53 41 22 -22 -61 -107 -20 135 222 200 328 375 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.2 19.1 20.0 20.8 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.8 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 100.9 101.4 101.8 102.3 102.7 103.4 104.1 105.2 106.8 108.7 110.9 113.1 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 9 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 8 5 48 43 0 0 18 13 23 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 18. 21. 22. 21. 20. 20. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 09/26/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 09/26/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##