* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 09/25/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 27 33 38 42 45 44 45 47 50 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 31 34 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 20 24 26 26 27 27 27 31 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 15 17 16 16 13 13 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 46 28 19 9 350 345 344 347 6 23 19 41 21 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 155 156 156 156 154 153 153 153 153 155 157 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 8 12 9 13 9 12 8 11 6 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 76 76 75 73 69 68 64 62 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 25 23 35 42 55 47 43 41 24 35 28 27 200 MB DIV 38 33 45 53 44 39 35 17 12 24 4 0 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 2 3 0 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 89 71 57 23 -10 -83 -145 -230 -209 -144 -29 60 55 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.6 17.1 18.3 19.3 20.4 21.4 22.3 22.9 23.3 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 98.1 98.7 99.3 99.8 100.3 101.1 101.8 102.5 103.2 104.2 105.7 107.3 108.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 32 22 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 46 12 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 35. 38. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 24. 25. 27. 30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 09/25/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 09/25/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##