* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 09/25/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 15 16 18 19 24 30 38 45 47 50 54 58 V (KT) LAND 15 15 16 16 19 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 8 6 8 12 11 12 10 13 7 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 2 0 1 -2 -1 0 -1 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 49 41 41 22 356 346 338 6 359 22 41 33 43 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 154 154 155 155 153 154 152 153 154 155 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 10 8 12 9 13 9 12 8 10 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 77 77 76 75 73 70 66 59 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 10 11 12 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 16 23 27 26 24 40 49 48 35 34 20 24 -10 200 MB DIV 18 42 45 45 64 46 44 31 17 22 19 -4 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 2 LAND (KM) 84 55 40 2 -18 -91 -150 -217 -300 -230 -154 -111 -44 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.6 18.7 19.9 21.1 22.2 23.2 23.9 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 95.9 96.6 97.2 97.9 98.5 99.6 100.6 101.5 102.3 103.2 104.4 105.6 106.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 13 24 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 24. 32. 37. 40. 44. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 10. 11. 13. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 15. 23. 30. 32. 35. 39. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 09/25/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 09/25/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##