* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 08/14/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 23 22 21 19 18 17 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 20 25 28 33 33 36 37 36 32 32 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -5 -5 -3 -5 -4 -2 -1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 311 309 306 303 302 299 288 283 283 282 292 275 285 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.4 27.7 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 132 132 132 133 131 132 135 138 141 141 140 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 52 50 50 49 49 47 44 41 41 45 45 48 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 7 0 0 0 -7 -6 -13 -2 -4 9 17 21 15 200 MB DIV 18 3 -14 -16 -8 8 23 28 18 11 19 33 17 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -4 -3 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1354 1213 1075 937 806 569 383 379 534 571 679 806 938 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.9 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 143.5 144.9 146.2 147.7 149.1 152.0 155.0 157.8 160.4 162.7 164.9 166.8 168.5 STM SPEED (KT) 20 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 20 12 2 2 2 2 5 12 15 24 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 763 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -20. -22. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. -15. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 08/14/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 08/14/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##