* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 08/14/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 31 31 29 27 24 23 25 29 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 31 31 29 27 24 23 25 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 24 22 20 19 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 17 18 20 23 28 27 29 26 24 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 -2 -5 -3 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 335 325 320 315 312 314 315 303 295 296 295 301 296 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 136 136 137 138 140 136 136 136 138 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 57 57 55 55 55 54 52 52 52 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -13 -20 -20 -21 -25 -14 -12 0 6 3 3 15 200 MB DIV 19 25 -2 -24 -36 -2 6 34 20 25 24 5 20 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 2 0 0 4 3 LAND (KM) 1755 1612 1471 1334 1200 931 721 578 601 739 842 938 1076 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.4 13.7 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.4 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 139.8 141.2 142.6 144.1 145.5 148.7 152.0 155.3 158.4 161.3 164.0 166.5 168.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 6 8 4 6 12 2 11 13 18 16 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. 0. 4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 08/14/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 08/14/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##