* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 08/12/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 30 29 24 20 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 30 29 24 20 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 31 30 28 25 22 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 2 3 6 15 22 29 34 36 38 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 0 -2 -2 -4 -5 -4 0 -1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 59 74 85 134 292 280 299 296 306 286 282 275 277 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.3 26.9 25.8 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 139 137 139 135 124 122 125 128 130 131 139 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 55 54 54 55 52 51 49 48 44 44 44 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -12 -7 -5 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 -8 -9 -3 -10 200 MB DIV -20 -19 -12 2 5 2 -2 -17 9 6 26 27 10 700-850 TADV -1 1 2 2 4 -1 0 0 0 0 1 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 1935 2038 2121 2229 2344 1997 1647 1287 910 546 238 223 391 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.7 16.9 17.3 17.9 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 126.7 128.3 129.8 131.5 133.1 136.4 139.7 143.1 146.7 150.4 154.1 157.6 160.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 16 16 16 16 17 18 18 17 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 26 8 6 2 2 9 0 0 0 1 10 4 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 4. -1. -5. -9. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 08/12/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 08/12/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##