* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 08/12/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 28 31 33 34 32 30 26 22 19 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 28 31 33 34 32 30 26 22 19 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 31 32 32 30 27 24 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 4 3 1 5 10 14 24 26 36 38 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -1 0 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -4 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 61 67 72 113 239 304 301 294 299 301 287 282 275 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.3 26.1 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.4 26.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 140 138 138 139 127 121 125 126 130 129 135 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 57 54 53 53 55 52 52 49 48 45 45 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -11 -12 -5 -3 -11 -9 -18 -11 -18 -11 -21 -10 200 MB DIV 10 -22 -16 -5 0 18 10 7 -2 6 2 12 23 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 2 2 2 0 2 0 -2 3 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1854 1961 2066 2163 2268 2127 1787 1446 1091 729 397 155 362 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.0 17.5 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 125.5 127.1 128.7 130.3 131.9 135.2 138.4 141.6 145.0 148.5 152.1 155.7 159.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 16 16 16 16 15 16 17 17 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 13 24 7 5 3 5 1 0 0 0 1 1 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 1. -3. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 08/12/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 08/12/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##