* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 08/12/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 44 48 49 48 45 42 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 44 48 49 48 45 42 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 30 34 39 41 41 39 37 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 6 4 1 2 7 7 16 23 28 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -5 -4 -2 -5 -3 0 -2 -4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 55 45 42 54 69 331 269 291 293 298 309 288 285 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.6 26.3 25.9 26.2 26.2 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 145 144 143 141 142 128 124 128 128 131 129 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 57 56 56 56 55 55 56 53 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -9 -6 -1 0 3 -2 5 -2 4 1 4 2 200 MB DIV 18 24 20 -3 -10 -1 43 40 41 13 21 17 37 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 0 0 2 1 -2 -1 -1 -4 -1 4 LAND (KM) 1752 1851 1956 2060 2158 2354 2128 1803 1484 1155 812 513 274 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.2 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 123.6 125.1 126.5 128.0 129.4 132.4 135.4 138.4 141.4 144.6 148.0 151.4 155.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 20 7 3 8 7 3 0 9 6 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 19. 23. 24. 23. 20. 17. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 08/12/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 08/12/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##