* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 08/11/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 40 40 41 38 34 30 27 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 36 40 40 41 38 34 30 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 28 31 35 37 37 35 31 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 6 6 5 1 2 4 10 17 27 34 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -5 -5 -2 -3 -3 -1 -4 -5 -5 -13 SHEAR DIR 48 54 43 50 67 40 285 264 294 290 301 295 287 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 26.9 27.1 26.0 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 142 141 134 137 125 117 117 117 119 123 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 57 55 54 52 50 46 44 39 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -10 -7 -7 -5 3 0 0 -6 -7 -14 -18 -21 200 MB DIV 5 13 15 6 -12 -10 14 14 -3 -28 -1 -22 -2 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 0 4 6 1 2 2 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1638 1704 1776 1868 1966 2127 2311 1980 1662 1338 1014 694 387 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.0 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 122.2 123.5 124.7 126.1 127.5 130.4 133.3 136.3 139.2 142.2 145.2 148.2 151.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 15 14 15 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 8 19 10 18 19 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 15. 15. 16. 13. 9. 5. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 08/11/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 08/11/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##