* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 08/10/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 50 52 50 48 45 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 50 52 50 48 45 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 29 33 39 45 49 49 47 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 25 19 14 10 5 4 3 4 8 7 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 -4 -7 -6 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 42 32 34 48 55 42 39 140 211 211 243 271 284 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.5 27.3 27.1 25.5 25.2 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 148 147 146 145 146 140 138 136 120 116 115 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 64 62 61 61 61 59 57 54 51 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 5 0 2 3 2 6 5 13 2 0 -4 -6 -15 200 MB DIV 40 26 23 27 26 51 4 13 19 30 7 3 -3 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 0 0 -3 -2 2 1 3 3 5 5 LAND (KM) 1602 1654 1709 1759 1813 1925 2076 2193 2317 2128 1811 1510 1205 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.9 14.8 15.7 16.7 17.6 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 119.9 120.8 121.6 122.6 123.5 125.4 127.7 130.0 132.5 135.1 137.9 140.6 143.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 12 12 13 14 14 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 9 10 10 9 9 5 9 4 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 25. 27. 25. 23. 20. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 08/10/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 08/10/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##