* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 08/08/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 33 43 52 63 70 75 81 86 86 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 33 43 52 63 70 75 81 86 86 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 30 34 40 48 58 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 14 13 11 11 16 10 9 8 9 23 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 0 3 10 0 0 -3 -6 -7 -11 -7 SHEAR DIR 5 10 13 6 343 358 31 46 49 91 67 41 61 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 152 152 152 152 149 147 148 148 147 146 143 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -54.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 70 72 71 71 71 71 69 70 68 67 67 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 9 10 12 14 15 17 18 18 20 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 2 6 10 11 13 12 8 17 21 29 37 38 27 200 MB DIV 43 31 47 80 82 82 44 29 17 7 -6 24 11 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -6 -11 -6 -6 -4 -2 -3 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 927 977 1020 1075 1136 1282 1368 1478 1628 1774 1869 1903 1908 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.0 11.7 11.4 11.4 12.0 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.2 110.1 111.1 112.0 114.0 116.0 118.0 119.9 121.6 123.0 124.3 125.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 27 28 28 19 20 21 12 9 7 6 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 17. 17. 20. 24. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 13. 23. 32. 43. 50. 55. 61. 66. 66. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 08/08/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 08/08/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##