* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 05/28/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 49 57 62 63 62 62 65 69 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 49 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 2 6 5 1 5 2 1 2 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 -1 4 5 0 1 3 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 32 8 25 335 325 338 344 31 1 179 250 213 57 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.1 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 162 162 160 153 147 146 146 147 149 150 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 9 9 10 9 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 82 81 77 76 74 68 69 67 74 79 86 86 86 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 7 7 9 11 10 8 6 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 15 27 36 66 92 87 95 86 86 73 92 200 MB DIV 80 55 72 80 76 94 52 58 74 74 72 82 105 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 3 0 1 2 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 261 248 238 217 179 46 -102 -117 -117 -115 -113 -111 -67 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 5 5 6 4 1 0 1 1 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 27 27 25 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 6. 2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 19. 27. 32. 33. 32. 32. 35. 39. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 05/28/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%)