* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 05/27/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 48 54 62 68 68 63 61 59 58 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 48 54 53 36 30 30 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 45 43 33 29 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 7 4 2 7 3 2 6 6 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 -1 -2 -2 2 6 7 8 -2 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 339 11 2 312 278 20 345 72 99 349 315 255 258 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.4 27.6 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 159 159 159 159 156 146 138 132 131 129 131 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 9 9 10 9 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 83 83 80 79 77 74 71 68 67 66 66 67 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 11 11 9 11 11 10 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 23 32 39 39 57 53 62 91 100 82 103 77 200 MB DIV 85 95 94 87 86 91 69 40 53 53 25 36 30 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 -4 -9 7 -1 0 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 242 214 189 170 157 96 -17 -115 -61 16 -17 -51 -105 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 27 26 25 20 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 29. 30. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 5. 5. 3. -1. -2. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 18. 24. 32. 38. 38. 33. 31. 29. 28. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 05/27/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 71% is 6.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)