* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 05/27/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 48 60 68 71 66 64 63 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 38 48 60 68 71 66 64 63 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 34 40 47 53 56 57 59 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 7 6 4 9 13 25 22 20 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 0 -1 4 5 14 10 5 2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 314 3 357 22 14 48 64 52 74 79 72 95 117 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 160 160 159 158 156 153 153 155 155 156 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -52.6 -53.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.3 -52.1 -51.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 7 6 8 7 10 8 9 7 10 8 700-500 MB RH 87 84 82 81 78 74 71 66 66 67 69 68 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 11 12 12 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 30 27 33 39 43 31 39 58 72 70 78 96 200 MB DIV 97 77 79 92 77 83 83 111 80 66 27 45 69 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -6 5 7 1 5 5 LAND (KM) 285 244 215 198 182 167 142 91 49 39 62 93 119 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.6 15.7 15.6 15.6 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.1 96.6 96.9 97.2 97.6 98.0 98.2 98.2 98.2 98.5 99.2 99.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 29 30 29 27 26 22 17 14 18 21 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 16. 24. 31. 34. 37. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 23. 35. 43. 46. 42. 39. 38. 40. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 05/27/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)