* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 05/27/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 37 50 58 68 70 65 62 59 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 37 50 58 68 70 51 40 41 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 45 50 41 34 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 4 5 4 11 20 17 16 17 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -6 -3 -2 1 2 2 9 6 5 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 279 327 26 32 61 4 74 73 63 75 69 61 94 SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 159 158 157 155 154 152 149 145 147 148 148 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 7 7 7 9 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 85 86 85 82 81 77 74 67 66 66 68 72 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 12 11 14 14 11 9 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 42 38 41 46 46 58 45 63 86 90 80 105 200 MB DIV 123 111 83 105 113 96 113 132 71 92 88 28 78 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -1 1 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 328 282 233 207 186 162 136 85 18 -16 -1 21 38 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.1 16.0 16.0 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.9 95.5 96.1 96.5 96.8 97.3 97.7 97.9 97.8 97.7 97.9 98.5 99.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 4 4 2 2 3 3 0 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 26 27 27 24 22 18 6 0 0 9 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 6. 10. 10. 6. 4. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 12. 25. 33. 43. 45. 40. 37. 34. 36. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 05/27/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)