* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 05/27/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 41 52 62 71 75 71 68 65 65 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 41 52 62 71 75 71 45 35 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 35 40 46 52 56 58 40 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 5 2 1 1 7 13 14 16 12 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -5 -5 -1 4 6 11 14 10 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 330 281 334 65 13 201 33 39 55 66 73 56 102 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 162 160 157 153 151 149 147 147 145 146 144 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.4 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -52.4 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 7 6 9 7 10 8 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 85 85 87 84 84 81 75 72 67 68 69 72 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 10 11 14 15 13 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 45 39 36 46 51 48 63 73 96 90 100 200 MB DIV 107 128 118 104 108 81 80 104 91 63 59 56 82 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 -7 -3 1 8 3 3 LAND (KM) 308 317 283 234 189 136 85 56 16 1 -31 -34 -58 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.3 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.2 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.8 95.3 95.7 96.1 96.5 96.7 96.9 97.1 96.9 96.9 97.3 97.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 28 26 26 25 20 16 8 5 25 28 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 11. 11. 9. 7. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 27. 37. 46. 50. 46. 43. 40. 40. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 05/27/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 78% is 6.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 52% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%)