* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 05/26/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 47 60 74 84 87 85 78 74 70 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 47 60 74 84 87 85 78 74 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 47 56 66 74 77 74 69 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 3 3 3 5 10 14 22 20 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -3 -6 -2 0 8 9 17 14 6 0 SHEAR DIR 78 76 181 37 96 64 42 67 71 60 73 73 99 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 164 161 159 157 157 156 153 150 149 149 148 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 83 85 84 86 83 79 75 74 68 65 67 66 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 7 7 7 9 9 12 14 14 14 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 28 31 32 39 32 41 31 42 57 93 72 80 69 200 MB DIV 81 98 126 105 92 84 101 98 126 96 56 46 60 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 -11 -2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 293 318 304 259 222 191 169 135 97 75 68 65 57 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 93.9 94.6 95.3 95.8 96.3 97.1 97.7 98.2 98.6 98.8 99.1 99.5 100.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 28 25 22 18 17 17 17 17 17 18 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. 0. 1. 7. 16. 24. 31. 34. 36. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 12. 12. 9. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 22. 35. 49. 59. 62. 60. 53. 49. 45. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 05/26/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 76% is 6.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 47% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%)