* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 05/26/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 45 51 56 57 55 55 58 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 45 51 56 57 55 55 41 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 26 28 31 34 37 39 38 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 8 10 4 5 3 8 12 18 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -5 -7 -4 -2 3 10 15 21 8 0 SHEAR DIR 5 8 337 289 323 297 311 82 99 68 77 85 71 SST (C) 30.0 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 168 167 166 165 160 157 155 154 151 148 145 142 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -52.5 -53.3 -52.1 -52.6 -51.6 -52.2 -51.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 6 9 7 10 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 79 82 84 84 84 82 79 73 70 66 66 64 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 26 31 32 37 26 33 23 33 49 70 76 76 200 MB DIV 70 65 99 119 119 85 61 75 86 88 83 60 16 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 -5 2 15 10 1 LAND (KM) 266 256 253 277 305 237 184 144 105 59 31 2 -1 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 91.7 92.5 93.3 94.0 94.7 95.8 96.7 97.5 98.3 98.9 99.4 99.9 100.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 26 29 30 23 19 16 16 15 11 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 16. 25. 33. 37. 40. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 25. 32. 36. 37. 35. 35. 38. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 05/26/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 63% is 5.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)