* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 05/26/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 25 31 37 42 48 49 49 49 51 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 25 31 37 42 48 49 41 32 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 24 25 27 30 32 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 6 5 8 9 9 10 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 -1 -3 -5 -5 -2 -1 10 9 14 8 1 SHEAR DIR 22 26 25 336 326 301 301 3 71 57 61 72 102 SST (C) 29.8 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.3 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 167 167 167 166 161 159 158 156 152 146 138 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 81 81 82 85 84 84 79 75 71 66 66 66 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 25 29 32 29 25 18 45 46 80 76 93 200 MB DIV 70 66 64 85 113 98 89 77 100 94 93 47 10 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -4 0 4 0 2 LAND (KM) 278 258 252 264 291 266 213 175 113 62 -27 -92 -76 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.4 13.8 14.3 15.0 15.9 17.1 18.0 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 91.2 92.1 92.9 93.6 94.3 95.5 96.5 97.4 98.2 99.2 99.9 100.5 101.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 26 28 30 27 22 17 16 17 17 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 16. 26. 33. 38. 40. 43. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 23. 28. 29. 29. 29. 31. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 05/26/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)